Macrocast by FTP & Markets Policy Partners
A pod at the intersection of financial markets and government policy
Episodes
128 episodes
Economic Anxiety and the Midterm Countdown ft. John Dick
This week on the Macrocast, CivicScience’s John Dick joins the team to discuss economic sentiment, declining optimism about personal finances, and why holiday spending plans remain strong despite consumer concerns. They also explore co...
The Road to the Midterms: Jobs, Inflation, and Energy
This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a weaker-than-expected September jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up as the labor force expanded. They also discuss softer wage growth, the late...
Treasury Turbulence, Trump-Xi, and the AI Trade
This week, the Macrocast team examines renewed turbulence in the Treasury market as longer-term yields climb amid stronger economic data, persistent inflation concerns, weak auction demand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Rese...
Rate Hikes, Trade Fights, and a Nervous Market with Trevor Hanger
The Fed raised rates again, but the bigger story may be what comes next. Trevor from FTP fills in for Ed this week to break down the latest data, the pressure building around the October meeting, and why markets are watching every signal from W...
Fall Outlook for the U.S. Consumer ft. John Dick
This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience to take the pulse of the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. The latest Economic Sentiment Index showed only a slight improvement, reflecting a ...
Labor Day Edition: Jobs, Fed, and What's Next
This week's episode covers August's jobs report, which beat expectations with solid job growth and upward revisions to prior months. The strong data pushed up the odds of a September rate hike, though dovish comments from Governor C...
Jackson Hole and the Fed's Tell
This week, the Macrocast team breaks down Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, where he flagged persistent above-target inflation even as he acknowledged a resilient economy, a clearer signal than the Fed has sent in months. Markets ...
Back-to-School Spending and Market Signals ft. John Dick
This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience for a read on the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. Sentiment bounced back after a steep prior decline and household financial health improved...
Summer Inflation, Earnings, and the AI Heatwave
This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan is out, so Ed Hill and Brendan Walsh hold down the fort, breaking down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed's next move. They also dig into a weaker-than-expected reta...
July Jobs Report Rattles Markets
This week, the Macrocast team unpacks a July jobs report that missed expectations by a wide margin, with payrolls declining even as the unemployment rate ticked lower, a divergence Brendan partially attributes to workers exiting the labor force...
Dog Days of Summer and Earnings Season
This week, the Macrocast team examines the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, where Chair Kevin Walsh held rates steady while maintaining his stance against forward guidance, a decision that drove Treasury yields higher and weighed on equ...
Oil, Rates, and Earnings: This Week's Macro Crosscurrents
This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan and Ed Hill examine the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and its effect on oil markets, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel. The discussion turns to the Federal Reserve, where Chair Kevin Wars...
Consumer Confidence Meets Congress: This Week on the Macrocast
This week on the Macrocast, Brendan and Ed were joined by frequent guest John Dick of CivicScience to review his latest Economic Sentiment Index. John discussed the continued improvement of consumer sentiment, indicating that, while still below...
The Fed's New Chapter, Middle East Tensions, and a Senate in Flux
This week on Macrocast, the team breaks down Chair Warsh's first moves at the helm of a divided FOMC and what the June meeting minutes reveal about the growing rift between hawks and doves. Market odds on a rate hike remain low for now...
Unpacking the Labor Slowdown and the Fed's New Playbook
This week on the Macrocast, the team analyzes the latest jobs report numbers, including labor market pressures and a surprising contraction in the leisure and hospitality sector. The discussion then turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut at a c...
Midsummer Slump: Tech Pulls Back, Inflation Sticks, and Congress Moves on Housing
Financial markets had a turbulent week, and the Macrocast team is sorting through the noise. Chip prices are climbing, semiconductor valuations look stretched, and investors are pulling back on AI-adjacent bets. Brendan explains what's...
Summer Heat: Retail Booms, Housing Slumps, and a Hawkish Fed ft. John Dick
In this episode, Macrocast regular John Dick of CivicScience joins the team to unpack the latest consumer sentiment numbers. The Economic Sentiment Index just hit its highest point since mid-April, retail sales came in nearly double ex...
Inflation, Blockbuster IPOs, and Soccer: All on Today's Episode
In this episode of the Macrocast, John, Brendan and Ed kick off with a discussion of this week's U.S. inflation data. The analyze both the CPI and PPI, noting that despite the elevated numbers, especially for producers, markets took the data in...
Jobs Friday, Shifting Markets, and What Comes Next
In this episode of the Macrocast, John, Brendan, and Ed break down a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it is doing to expectations for markets and the Fed. They look at the mixed reaction across stocks and bonds, the shift in ma...
Iran Deal Hopes, Fed Headwinds, and the AI Trade
This week on the Macrocast, the team broke down the market’s reaction to potential Iran deal developments, exploring how lower oil prices and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease inflation pressures and influence Tre...
The Macro Picture: China, Rates, and Healthcare ft. Special Guest Barrett Thornhill
The Macrocast this week turns to healthcare and biotech with special guest Barrett Thornhill of FTP joining John Fagan, Ed Hill, and Brendan Walsh. China’s biotech boom is front and center, with more than half of global cli...
Markets, Mobility, and Economic Sentiment
This week on the Macrocast, the team is joined by John Dick of CivicScience to discuss a surprising rebound in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), driven in part by improving outlook on the U.S. economy and the impact of tax refund season.<...
Jobs Friday, Oil Pressure Builds, and the Next Inflation Signal
This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a stronger than expected April jobs report showing 115,000 new jobs and what it suggests about continued labor market strength and market expectations around growth and policy. The discu...
Powell's Unconventional Exit, Warsh's Entry, and the Near-Term Fed Outlook
This week on Macrocast, the team examines Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remain beyond his tenure as chair and what it means for Fed independence as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over. The discussion also touches on the labor market and...